Fishbone or wishbone?

One problem that managers often have is with grasping causality. When a problem occurs they may leap to a 'cause' that is nearest in proximity or time without looking more broadly or deeply.

Fishbone diagrams are a rudimentary tool to get people thinking about possible causes for a problem and remind them not to focus on a single factor. The ribs of the fish are generally labelled with generic categories (such as People, Plant, Procedures, Policies) with sub-ribs that drill down to more specific potential causes.

They may be useful in getting people to think outside of a narrow box when it comes to causality, yet in some ways fishbone diagrams still promote a simplistic linear idea of causality, a simple B was caused by A full stop, rather than a more nuanced model in which multiple inputs, none of which may be sufficient to cause B, through their presence, absence or interaction jointly brought about B.

Considered individually none of these inputs may have been sufficient to cause the problem and the absence of a salient input may be hard to detect since we tend to look for what happened to cause the problem, rather than what failed to happen.

So although a fishbone diagram may show the most obvious linear causes (though causes that don't fit in one of the generic categories may still slip through the cracks), they ignore the radical complexity of how the world really works.

The 'causes' it identifies may be more indicative of wishful thinking: that reality is simple, that causes are easy to identify and that problems are easy to solve.